Stock & Investment
Stock Analysis
Master the frameworks behind rigorous stock analysis — from reading (and questioning) analyst consensus to building DCF valuations, reading technical trends, and diagnosing single-stock risk.
The full source paper behind this article — read it inline or open it in Google Docs.
Decoding the Analyst Consensus
Target prices are not predictions—they are marketing tools. A forensic guide to TipRanks, Bloomberg, and the epistemology of Wall Street research. Explore the conflict engine, platform wars, leverage traps, and tactical strategies for the intelligent investor navigating analyst consensus.
Visual Guide
Valuation Frameworks
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
Projects a company's future free cash flows and discounts them back to today's value using a required rate of return — the most theoretically "correct" method, but also the most sensitive to assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, terminal value), which is why two analysts can run a DCF on the same company and land on wildly different numbers.
EV/EBITDA & Comparable Multiples
Instead of forecasting the future, multiples ask "what is a similar company trading at right now?" — EV/EBITDA is popular because it's capital-structure-neutral (ignores debt vs. equity financing choices), while P/E is simpler but distorted by one-time items and differing tax rates across companies.
Analyst Consensus
Reading Target Prices Critically — Sell-side analysts often work at banks with investment-banking relationships to the companies they cover, which structurally skews ratings toward "buy" — genuine sell ratings are rare. The dispersion of estimates (how far apart analysts' price targets are) is often a more useful signal than the average itself: tight consensus suggests a well-understood story, wide dispersion suggests real uncertainty the average target price is quietly papering over.
Technical & Insider Signals
Trend vs. Momentum, Support Levels
A trend describes price direction over time; momentum describes the speed/strength of that move — a stock can be in an uptrend while momentum is decelerating, often an early warning sign. Support/resistance levels are prior price areas where buying/selling pressure previously reversed a move, useful as risk-management markers even if you're not a pure technical trader.
What Insider Trading Actually Predicts
Insider buying is a relatively strong signal — executives have countless ways to reduce risk, so voluntarily putting personal cash in is meaningful. Insider selling is far weaker evidence — it's routinely just diversification, tax planning, or a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan, not a vote against the company.
Case Studies
These frameworks apply differently depending on the company: NVIDIA tests DCF assumptions under hyper-growth uncertainty, Tesla highlights the gap between narrative-driven valuation and traditional multiples, and Figma shows how to value a newly-public, high-growth SaaS business with limited historical data. Explore each case study on the site for the full walkthrough.
Related & Advanced Topics
13F Analysis
Cross-check your own valuation work against what institutional investors are actually buying — see 13F Analysis.
Macro Analysis
A company-level valuation is incomplete without the macro backdrop — discount rates, sector rotation, and the economic cycle all move the "right" multiple — see Macro Analysis.